Europe ‘faces window of vulnerability until 2030,’ Dutch chief of defence warns
The chief of defence of the Dutch armed forces, Gen Onno Eichelsheim, said that Europe urgently needs to learn from the lessons of Ukraine, as Europe is “facing a window of vulnerability until 2030” as it races to rearm itself.
Speaking at the Euronews Defence and Space Summit, he said there is “a gap between today’s threats and an armed force that will only be ready several years from now.”
“Within that window, we must ensure that strong deterrence is in place, and if deterrence fails, we have to fight,” he said.
Eichelsheim also spoke about the need to make the right decisions on procurement and industrial cooperation and work together, not in solely national interests, to move at pace required. “We don’t need 27 different drone programmes,” he said.
“The success of European defence cooperation will not be measured by the number of programmes we create, but by the equipment we put in the hands of our soldiers,” he said.
He said the EU’s tools “only work if we use them in the right way,” whereas the European defence matchmaking programmes at the moment are “like Tinder, with all the same frustrations.”
“To make a match, you need a sufficient number of participants on the platform and once a match is made, someone must take action. And it is clear that member states, my own included, are not putting all of our project projects on that platform.
Furthermore, the information provided is often not detailed enough to enable meaningful matches, just as on Tinder. Profiles do not always reflect all reality, and even when you do get a match, someone has to respond.”
At one point, fearing that he’s taking this analogy a bit too far, he rushed to assure the audience that he does not, actually, spend that much time on Tinder and is happily married.
But he continued with his serious point:
“Too often we still begin by asking what share of defence industry contracts can my own country secure? Only after we have established that we look at partners, and only then do we accept attempts to make defence cooperation work. So we must reverse that logic.”
Key events
Romanian PM candidate loses key vote as political deadlock continues
The Romanian parliament has again failed to elect a prime minister, prolonging a political crisis that has been ongoing since a pro-European coalition government collapsed in May.
Liberal European parliament member Siegfried Muresan failed to get lawmakers’ backing with just 182 of the 233 votes needed to approve his government, according to the official count, AFP reports, bringing the prospect of snap elections closer.
President Nicusor Dan has now nominated three candidates for the post of prime minister, but all have failed to successfully form a government.
The Council of Europe has said that Ukrainians have made nearly 200,000 claims for compensation over Russia’s invasion since 2022.
AFP reports the body said about 65,000 of the 195,000 damages claims made since its Ukraine register opened in 2024 in The Hague had been accepted and the rest were being reviewed.
The council said claims can now be made in 43 different categories ranging from loss of human life or injury, to deprivation of medical care and education and fallout on the environment and natural resources.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has posted to social media to say that he has visited frontline troops in Ukraine’s east. Accompanying a video clip, the Ukrainian leader said:
Today, I met here with the warriors carrying out missions in the Lyman sector and presented them with state awards. I also spoke with the brigade commander about the missions the unit is carrying out.
EU’s Kubilius calls for ‘peace through strength’ and further support for Ukraine
European defence commissioner Andrius Kubilius called for a push to achieve “peace through strength” as Russia continues to be not interested in any diplomatic talks on Ukraine.
Speaking at the Euronews event, he warned there were clear signs that “Russia is escalating,” but there is no immediate sign of political decision to strike further.
“Russians have capability to do some big things – one drone, ten drones, hundred drones, flying into Lithuania. I would not be surprised if that were to happen.
But do they have a really clear political decision to do something? I don’t know, and for me all our discussions about [whether] the Russians will do something are based on some sort of theoretical predictions.”
He said Europe in any case “needs to be ready” as “winter could be very rough,” but more attention should be paid to Ukraine’s growing capabilities, including its ability to strike targets within Russia.
“Ukraine really is defending not only themselves, but they are defending the whole Europe. And we need to make that a real priority for us,” he said.
He said it was “difficult to predict” what Russia could do in the future, but any signs of being afraid of Russia would only “encourage Putin to be even more escalatory.”
“Our support [for] Ukraine should be very clear answer to whatever Putin is trying to escalate,” he said.
Ukraine struggling to cover funding gap as war costs surge with drones, missiles, PM says
Meanwhile, Ukraine’s total war costs will reach $155bn this year and the government is struggling to close a $27bn funding gap to ensure it can still conduct combat operations at the start of 2027, prime minister Sergii Koretskyi said.
Koretskyi said the government planned to cover $7bn of the gap by postponing expenditure, reallocating money from other parts of the budget and cutting some costs, and was in talks with partners on how to cover the remaining $20bn, Reuters reported.
It is the first time Kyiv has released an estimate of its annual war costs, meaning there is no comparable figure for 2025, but officials have said that the cost of the conflict has risen as the use of missile and drone technology has increased.
Russia’s hybrid threats no longer ‘an eastern flank problem’ as they ‘move closer to our red lines,’ Lithuanian chief of defence says
Lithuanian chief of defence Raimundas Vaikšnoras issued a similar warning about Russia’s escalating actions in Europe.
He said:
“We often imagine that war begins with tanks crossing the border. We wait for a clear Article 5 scenario.
But Russia is already operating below [the threshold for] Article 5. In Lithuania, we see indirect these threats as drone attacks in our airspace, sabotage and arson, cyberattacks, GPS jamming, the use of illegal migration as a tool …
For years, it was seen as an eastern flank problem. Not any more. We see the same methods increasingly used across Europe. The purpose is clear to test our resiliency, find our weak points and challenge ally unity.
So the question is, if this is happening now, what is next?
Russia will continue to test how far it can go if there is no effective response. Each successful test creates space for the next one.
More pressure on critical infrastructure, energy network and our societies and attempt to slow down Nato decision making process before conventional conflict even begins.
Today, Russia operates below of Article 5. Tomorrow it may test how close it can get to that line.”
He warned that “we should not assume” that Russia will remain at the current threat level.
“It will test our limits. It will move closer to our red lines, and it may eventually test whether these lines can be erased.”
Vaikšnoras warned that meanwhile “all European procurement systems and legal frameworks still often work at peacetime speed.”
“If it takes years to test, buy and field new technologies, we risk buying yesterday’s technology for tomorrow’s wars,” he warned.
Europe ‘faces window of vulnerability until 2030,’ Dutch chief of defence warns
The chief of defence of the Dutch armed forces, Gen Onno Eichelsheim, said that Europe urgently needs to learn from the lessons of Ukraine, as Europe is “facing a window of vulnerability until 2030” as it races to rearm itself.
Speaking at the Euronews Defence and Space Summit, he said there is “a gap between today’s threats and an armed force that will only be ready several years from now.”
“Within that window, we must ensure that strong deterrence is in place, and if deterrence fails, we have to fight,” he said.
Eichelsheim also spoke about the need to make the right decisions on procurement and industrial cooperation and work together, not in solely national interests, to move at pace required. “We don’t need 27 different drone programmes,” he said.
“The success of European defence cooperation will not be measured by the number of programmes we create, but by the equipment we put in the hands of our soldiers,” he said.
He said the EU’s tools “only work if we use them in the right way,” whereas the European defence matchmaking programmes at the moment are “like Tinder, with all the same frustrations.”
“To make a match, you need a sufficient number of participants on the platform and once a match is made, someone must take action. And it is clear that member states, my own included, are not putting all of our project projects on that platform.
Furthermore, the information provided is often not detailed enough to enable meaningful matches, just as on Tinder. Profiles do not always reflect all reality, and even when you do get a match, someone has to respond.”
At one point, fearing that he’s taking this analogy a bit too far, he rushed to assure the audience that he does not, actually, spend that much time on Tinder and is happily married.
But he continued with his serious point:
“Too often we still begin by asking what share of defence industry contracts can my own country secure? Only after we have established that we look at partners, and only then do we accept attempts to make defence cooperation work. So we must reverse that logic.”
Five dead, 14 injured after overnight Russian strikes on Ukraine
Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukraine faced “a difficult attack” from Russia overnight with “nearly 190 attack drones, as well as ballistic missiles.”
“The main target was energy infrastructure in the capital and the Kyiv region. Residential buildings were also damaged. Work is ongoing to restore electricity and water supplies everywhere they are currently unavailable.”
He added:
“In the morning, a drone struck a grocery supermarket in Ivankovychi. First responders are extinguishing the fire. Kyiv is also under drone attack. A warehouse building was hit, and one person was killed. There were strikes on critical infrastructure in the Zhytomyr, Mykolaiv, Kirovohrad, and Rivne regions. There was also damage in the Odesa, Sumy, Kharkiv, Kherson, and Cherkasy regions.
As of now, fourteen people have been injured across the country as a result of all these strikes. Tragically, five people have been killed, including a child.”
Russia issues rare warning to Nato over Kaliningrad
Russia has warned Nato it would be ready to resort to nuclear weapons if the alliance attempted to cut off Kaliningrad, a Russian exclave that borders the Baltic Sea, Reuters reported.
In a document sent to Nato, seen by Reuters, and first reported by Lithuanian media, Moscow accused the alliance of a “dangerous and reckless course” that entailed “high risks of the outbreak of a direct armed conflict”.
The document said this included the possibility “of Russian strikes against decision-making centres in the alliance’s member states right from the outset of the conflict”.
“Russia will be ready to use the entire arsenal of forces and capabilities at its disposal, including nuclear weapons, in order to defend its territory should Nato countries undertake any attempt aimed at isolating the Kaliningrad Region from the rest of the country,” said the text, classed as a “non-paper” — diplomatic jargon for an informal document.
Nato spokesperson Allison Hart confirmed Russia had sent a non-paper to the alliance but did not disclose its contents.
“We have sent a response, noting that Nato is a defensive Alliance and none of our activities or exercises pose a risk to any part of Russia. We strongly denounce the threat of force, including any irresponsible nuclear rhetoric. We call on Russia to end its unprovoked war in Ukraine,” she said.
Lithuania dismissed the Russian warning “completely baseless and seen as a measure of psychological pressure,” Deividas Matulionis, national security aide to president Gitanas Nausėda, told local media, as reported by LRT.
Brexit ‘the biggest lie of the last 30 years,’ Macron says
Meanwhile, with Brexit and the question of Britain’s relationship with the EU back in the spotlight in the UK, it’s worth picking up some fresh comments from France’s Emmanuel Macron, who is now on a state visit in Spain.
Speaking with students at the Universidad Complutense de Madrid last night, Macron took aim at Brexit calling it “the biggest lie of the last 30 years.”
In a long defence of Europe’s unique integration process – where, according to Macron, even nationalist leaders have come to appreciate the bloc’s role – he described Brexit as a “disastrous exception” to the rule.
He said:
“Brexit is the biggest lie of the last 30 years.
Those who said, ‘We’ll be richer,’ eight points of GDP less 10 years on. We’ll solve the immigration problem; it’s more complicated than before. And we’re going to be a huge success in international trade, it’s even worse.”
We will hear from him again later today, as he is expected to take part in a press conference with Spain’s Pedro Sánchez early afternoon.
Russia moves towards mass attacks on energy infrastructure, Ukraine’s PM says
Russia has moved to mass attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, Ukrainian prime minister Sergii Koretskyi said, after overnight strikes on energy facilities in the capital and other regions, Reuters reported.
“This was the first time such a massive and combined attack had taken place since the end of the last heating season,” Koretskyi said on Telegram.
‘It will be a dark winter for Europe,’ Belgium’s defence minister warns
Belgian defence minister Theo Francken said “there will be more hybrid threat actions” in the coming months, as he starkly warned “it will be a dark winter for Europe.”
Speaking at Euronews’s Defence and Space Summit, Francken said hybrid warfare “is not something that Russia [has been] doing for two or three years,” but for much longer and it has “expertise” in this area, often making it difficult for western countries to investigate them and attribute responsibility.
He particularly worried about Russia’s increased use of jet-powered drones.
“We need to scale up our air defences and we need to have more stocks, scale up production. Everything has to go faster,” he said.
He said Belgium used to be “the worse pupil in class” two years ago with low defence spending, but it has since improved and ramped it up its planning.
He said Europe got too used to its comfortable welfare state protections at the cost of adequate spending on defence, and this is now changing.
“Europe has been very good in investing in soft power, in social security. And it’s beautiful to have a pension system, to have social welfare systems [for] when somebody gets sick, when somebody lost his job – we have everything. But when there’s war or there’s hybrid threats, we don’t have anything. So yeah, we’re in a really difficult position.”
Overnight Russian attacks on Ukraine – in pictures
Morning opening: Russia targets communications, energy facilities in Ukraine
Jakub Krupa
Debris had been found at the premises of one of the western embassies in the centre of Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv mayor Vitali Klitschko said this morning, citing preliminary information.
Klitschko did not name the embassy, but said emergency services were heading to the site.
It comes after another night of Russian drone attacks on Ukraine, which damaged energy facilities and other civilian infrastructure.
Russia said it targeted a communications centre and energy facilities in Kyiv, and port infrastructure in Izmail, among others.
Neighbouring Poland issued a high readiness emergency alert to residents of south-eastern part of the country this morning, as it scrambled military aircraft to monitor the situation.
I will keep an eye on this for you.
In other news, Romanian parliament will vote on a third nominee for prime minister, with EU lawmaker Siegfried Mureșan expected to struggle to secure the required majority.
And France’s Emmanuel Macron continues his visit to Spain amid ongoing housing protests in the country. He is due to appear at a press conference with Spanish prime minister, Pedro Sánchez later today.
I will bring you all the latest here.
It’s Wednesday, 30 September 2026, it’s Jakub Krupa here, and this is Europe Live.
Good morning.
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